State Preview

On the boy's side things look like this:

Port Washington is favored to win
Shorewood is expected to be second
With the exception of Chilton, no one else should be close.

This is our usual position coming into this race.

At Sectionals Ports top runners looked like this:

Mark 16:51
Jack 16:54
Colin 16:59
Evan 17:05
Ethan 17:29
Jeff 17:48

(last year at State: Jack 16:30;Mark 17:02; Colin 17:00; Evan 17:22; and Ethan 18:00)

Our Guys looked like this at sectionals:

Kevin 16:25
Andrew 16:32
Peter 17:14
Ben 17:53
Brian 17:54
Brian 17:55

There is some talk that Port wasn't racing all out, but I don't buy that. The times look right for what they have done this season. Jack and Mark will certainly run faster, but the other guys are about where we expected them to be. Running easy at sectionals is about as effective as a prevent defense in football. Champions run to win.

As you can see we match up pretty well through the first three. We get trounced in 4 and 5. Most big races come down to the 5th runner because of the number of runners in the race.

We have a chance to win, it's not a great chance but we do have a chance. I see at least three key elements:

1. Kevin and Andrew must have good races and be n the top 5 overall.
2. Ben needs to stay with Peter and they both need to break 17.
3. One of the Brian's needs to get under 17:30.

If those three things happen we should win.

Alternately if two port runners have a poor race because of illness or weather or injury then we could win without Brian moving up, but Ben would still have to be at or under 17.

There really is no margin of error for us in the team race. We need some breaks.

On the individual side: Kevin and Andrew both have a legitimate shot at winning the whole thing. They should at least be in the top 10. Two runners in the top 10 would be huge for us.

The weather is in our favor. For whatever reason we always run better in bad conditions. If it is really windy and sloppy Saturday, that will be one of the breaks that we have been looking for.

Experience is also in our favor. The ridges course is tough if you have never seen it before and past experience is a huge advantage. As four time winners, we know this course.

What to watch for in the race:

The first mile is very flat and runners come in very keyed up and nervous. The result is that many runners go out way to fast. If there is a pack at the mile mark running some insane time ( like 4:50), be sure that most of those in it will not be in the top ten at the end. If Andrew and Kevin are not in the lead at the mile that is also not a big deal. They know their pace and will stick to it. The second mile starts the hills and reality will set in for a lot of runners who felt good in the first mile. This is when we start to move forward as a team. If we start to lose ground here then it is probably not going to be our day. Our guys should be passing other runners the whole third mile. In particular the last 600 meters is where we generally win or lose if it is close. The guys will be going on the last long uphill coming out of the woods before the finish. It will probably come down to our number 5 runner whoever that is. If they can kick and pass 10 or more people in that last stretch then we will be close. If they are blown and dying then we are probably going to be second.

This is all pure speculation, but it is the typical pattern.

If you are counting places the individual runners who are there without teams do not count in the team scores. They will have different colored numbers ( usually yellow). If you are trying to track between Port and us you need to skip those runners.

Most of the D2 coaches seem to be rooting for us to win. They don't like that Port got dropped down when they are so good. The WIAA has discretion about these moves and could have held them in D1 for another year. This means that we will have a lot of crowd support from teams who might otherwise like to see our winning streak come to an end.

It will be a great race!

On the girl's side:

We have a really young but very talented team. Unfortunately lack of experience will work against us this year, but the experience will make us that much better next year.

They will easily be in the top 10 ( if Chloe runs) and could be as high as 5. I looked at a lot of numbers and I just can't see a scenario that puts them any higher, but I have been wrong before.

On the individual side:

Emily B. had a huge break-out race at sectionals. Her time puts her in the mix with the top ten runners overall. She has the potential to win the whole thing, although that is not likely. Her sectional time of 15:13 on a very tough course was a huge step forward for her. It is impossible to tell if it is a one time event or a permanent shift. I am leaning towards the permanent shift. She looked really good. the ridges is a much easier course for the girls than tendik park because the first mile is so flat. Thus if she just runs what she did at sectionals she should be under 15. I believe that Claire ran 14:50 her freshman year and the comparison is fair. If she can step up another notch I think she can run 14:40 or better. In most years that would put her in position to kick for the win. This year Ashley B has a chance to break 14. She won last year and is the current record holder.

It should be fun to watch.